NRF Forecasts

Economic forecast
Economic forecast 2019

NRF forecasts retail sales during 2019 will increase between 3.8 percent and 4.4 percent to more than $3.8 trillion despite threats from an ongoing trade war, the volatile stock market and the effects of the government shutdown.

A blue door with a holiday wreath hanging
Holiday forecast 2018

Thanks to a healthy economy and strong consumer confidence, NRF expects holiday retail sales in November and December to increase between 4.3 and 4.8 percent over 2017 for a total of $717.45 billion to $720.89 billion.


Latest news

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Tariffs could destroy American Dream for Pennsylvania entrepreneur
Sherrill Mosee, an entrepreneur who started Pennsylvania-based MinkeeBlue, simply cannot afford more tariffs.
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2018 holiday sales grew 2.9 percent amid turmoil over trade policy and delay in data collection
Holiday retail sales in 2018 grew 2.9 percent to $707.5 billion.
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Retail imports still strong as possible March tariff hike approaches
Imports have dipped since last fall but remain higher than usual ahead of a possible tariff increase on Chinese goods.
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