NRF Forecasts 0.5% Decline in Retail Sales for 2009

For Immediate Release
Kathy Grannis (202)783-7971
grannisk@nrf.com

NRF Forecasts 0.5% Decline in Retail Sales for 2009
-Deep Recession Should Finally Give Way to Second Half Growth-

Washington, January 27, 2009 – The National Retail Federation released its 2009 economic forecast today, projecting retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) will decrease 0.5% from last year. According to its quarterly Retail Sales Outlook report, NRF sees more challenges ahead as consumers continue to shift their spending priorities.

“Most of the consumer behavior we saw in 2008 will continue well into this year,” said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells. “Shoppers will be seeking value and trading down to discount and off-price retailers in order to stretch their purchasing power.”

The first half of the year will see a continuation of the weakness that was felt in most of 2008. First half sales are expected to decline 2.5 percent. There will be some improvement in the third quarter with sales decreasing 1.1 percent. In the fourth quarter, sales are expected to improve 3.6 percent due to easy comparisons to last year as well as a strengthening economy.

The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services. NRF represents an industry with more than 1.6 million U.S. retail establishments, more than 24 million employees - about one in five American workers - and 2008 sales of $4.6 trillion. As the industry umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations. www.nrf.com.

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