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Holiday Shoppers Planning to Make a Budget and Check it Twice, According to NRF Survey

For raw and historical data from this survey, click here

For Immediate Release
Contact: Kathy Grannis (202) 783-7971 or grannisk@nrf.com
www.nrf.com/holidayhq
 

Holiday Shoppers Planning to Make a Budget and Check it Twice, According to NRF Survey
--40% of Consumers Plan to Start Shopping Before Halloween-- 

Washington, October 16, 2008 – In the event that retailers needed yet another reminder that this holiday season will be challenging, consumers are happy to oblige. According to NRF’s 2008 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, conducted by BIGresearch, U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of $832.36 on holiday-related shopping, up a paltry 1.9 percent over last year’s $816.69. This represents the lowest increase in planned consumer spending since the survey began in 2002.

Though shoppers choose to visit stores for different reasons, consumers say one factor will play the biggest role in buying decisions this year: price. According to the survey, 40.0 percent of shoppers say that sales or promotions is the largest factor when determining where to shop, while another 12.6 percent state that everyday low prices are most important. Other consumers rated selection (21.5%) and merchandise quality (13.4%) as the primary factor. Only a handful of consumers said they are making buying decisions based on a convenient location (5.6%) or helpful customer service (5.2%) this year. 

“Retailers are going into this holiday season with their eyes wide open, knowing that savings and promotions will be the main incentive for shoppers,” said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin. “No one is canceling Christmas because money is tight, but consumers will be sticking to their budgets and looking for good deals when deciding where to spend this holiday season.” 

As in previous years, gift giving is the largest component of shoppers’ budgets. This year, the average person will spend $466.13 on gifts for family, $94.52 on friends, $26.70 on co-workers, and $43.50 on other gifts. For the first time in the survey’s history, people say they plan to spend less on gifts for family members ($466.13 in 2008 vs. $469.14 last year). Spending is expected to be particularly weak among young adults, as 18-24 year-olds plan to spend $50 less on gifts than one year ago.

“It might not be easy to pull back on small gifts for a co-worker or a child’s teacher, but consumers feel like their family understands their current situation,” said Phil Rist, Vice President of Strategy for BIGresearch. “Americans might eliminate an extended family gift exchange or buy one big present for all of the kids to compensate for a budget-friendly Christmas this year.” 

Consumers’ holiday budgets this year also include spending on decorations ($51.43), greeting cards and postage ($32.43), candy and food ($95.04) and flowers ($22.61). While retailers spend the month of October rolling out holiday merchandise and promotions, consumers are standing by at the ready.

According to the survey, 40.2 percent of consumers will start their holiday shopping before Halloween. This figure is consistent with numbers from previous years and demonstrates that bargain hunters are looking for ways to spread out spending over a period of time. 

With sales and promotions the theme of the 2008 holiday season, it’s no surprise that most consumers (69.7%) plan to do some shopping at discount stores. Additionally, more than half of American adults plan to shop at department stores (58.0%), while more than one-third of shoppers plan to shop at clothing (37.3%) and electronics (37.3%) stores. 

As the Internet becomes more of a mainstay in the retail landscape, Americans are heading online to compare prices, research retail locations, and look for gift ideas before heading to stores. Although the number of people buying gifts online is expected to remain flat over last year (44.2% in 2008 vs. 44.3% in 2007), shoppers will rely on the Internet more than ever to browse for holiday gifts and research products. According to the survey, the Internet will influence 33.6 percent of holiday purchases, up from 30.2 percent last year and 28.9 percent in 2006. 

Though most consumers plan to stick to a budget this holiday season, many are padding it with a little something extra. Knowing that the holidays often abound with good deals, more than half (56.6%) of shoppers are planning to make additional non-gift purchases for themselves or their families this holiday. Some may have even been holding back on personal purchases for the last few months to take advantage of holiday pricing. Shoppers will spend an average of $119.83 on these purchases, up from $106.67 last year. 

NRF continues to expect holiday sales to increase 2.2 percent to $470.4 billion. The NRF 2008 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey was designed to gauge consumer behavior and shopping trends related to the winter holidays. The survey polled 8,117 consumers and was conducted for NRF by BIGresearch September 30 – October 7, 2008. This was after Congress passed the economic rescue package but before last week’s substantial stock market decline. The consumer poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.0 percent.

BIGresearch is a consumer market intelligence firm that provides unique consumer insights that are gathered online utilizing very large sample sizes. BIGresearch’s syndicated Consumer Intentions and Actions survey monitors the pulse of more than 7,000 consumers each month to empower its clients with unique insights for identifying opportunities in a fragmented and changing marketplace.  

The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services. NRF represents an industry with more than 1.6 million U.S. retail establishments, more than 24 million employees - about one in five American workers - and 2007 sales of $4.5 trillion. As the industry umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations. www.nrf.com.  

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