Retail Container Traffic to Break Last Year’s Record Three Months in a Row

For Immediate Release

Contact:
NRF: J. Craig Shearman (202) 626-8134 shearmanc@nrf.com
Global Insight: Paul Bingham (202) 481-9216 paul.bingham@globalinsight.com

Retail Container Traffic to Break Last Year’s Record Three Months in a Row

WASHINGTON, August 2, 2007 — Traffic at the nation’s major retail container ports will top last year’s record high for three months in a row beginning in August as cargo destined for sale during the all-important holiday season begins to move across the docks, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Global Insight.

“Now that we’re in peak season, August is going to be a very busy month and is expected to break the record set last October,” Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. “September will be slightly slower but will still top last October, and this October will set another whole new record. Despite the heavy volume, all the ports we cover are operating without congestion from harbor to gate, and shippers can be confident the system will have adequate capacity to provide acceptable performance for the remainder of the year. Rail performance for getting cargo away from the ports continues to be below last year’s levels, but is still acceptable and should be adequate for the peak season surge in volume.”

“This pattern of new records being broken early shows that retailers are bringing holiday season merchandise into the country sooner than in the past,” NRF Vice President and International Trade Counsel Erik Autor said. “That helps protect against any unforeseen problems in the supply chain, and ensures that products will definitely be on the shelves when customers come into the stores.”

Port Tracker set the congestion rating for the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach at “moderate” last month because of the threat of an office clerical union strike that could have disrupted operations. But International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 63, the Marine Clerks Association, has agreed on a new contract since then, and the ports have returned to their previous congestion rating of “low.” The remainder of U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker – Oakland, Tacoma and Seattle on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast – are all currently rated “low” for congestion, the same as last month.

Nationwide, the ports surveyed handled 1.45 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU) of container traffic in June, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was up 3.2 percent from June 2006 and up 6.2 percent from this May. Volume continued up in July, which was estimated at 1.5 million TEU, up 8.1 percent from July 06.

Ports in the survey are expected to set a record high in August, which is forecast at 1.56 million TEU, up 5 percent from August 2006 and easily breaking last October’s record of 1.51 million TEU. Volume should drop to 1.52 million TEU in September, up 2.1 percent from last September and continuing to top last October. This October, traditionally the busiest month of the year, is forecast at 1.57 million TEU, a 4.1 percent increase from a year ago and a new record. After the October peak, traffic should drop to 1.46 million TEU in November (up 3.2 percent from November 2006) and 1.4 million TEU in December (up 7.9 percent from December 2006). One TEU is a 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.

Port Tracker, which is produced by the economic research, forecasting and analysis firm Global Insight for NRF, looks at inbound container volume, the availability of trucks and railroad cars to move cargo out of the ports, labor conditions and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion. The report is free to NRF retail members. Subscription information is available at www.nrf.com/porttracker or by calling (202) 783-7971.

The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services. NRF represents an industry with more than 1.6 million U.S. retail establishments, more than 24 million employees - about one in five American workers - and 2006 sales of $4.7 trillion. As the industry umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations. www.nrf.com.

Global Insight Inc. is a privately held company that brought together the two most respected economic information companies in the world, DRI and WEFA. Global Insight provides the most comprehensive economic and financial information available on countries, regions and industries, using a unique combination of expertise, models, data and software within a common analytical framework to support planning and decision-making.  Through the world's first same-day analysis and risk assessment service, Global Insight provides immediate insightful analysis of market conditions and key events around the world, covering economic, political and operational factors.  The company has over 3,800 clients in industry, finance and government with revenues in excess of $95 million, over 600 employees and 23 offices in 13 countries covering North and South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia. www.globalinsight.com

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