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Mar 7, 2007

Container Traffic Building at Major Retail Ports

For Immediate Release
NRF Contact: J. Craig Shearman (202) 626-8134
shearmanc@nrf.com
Global Insight Contact: Paul Bingham (202) 481-9216 paul.bingham@globalinsight.com

Container Traffic Building at Major Retail Ports

Washington, DC, March 7, 2007 — Traffic at the nation’s major retail container ports is beginning to climb out of the slow season and could top last year’s peak as early as July, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Global Insight.

“The slow season is on its way out,” Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. “February was the slowest month of the year, as usual, but volume is starting to pick up now in March and we think July could top the peak for all of last year. We saw some weather disruptions in February, but U.S. ports are operating without congestion, and truck and rail performance has been sufficient.”

“This is the time of year when retailers really have to begin watching what’s happening at the ports very closely,” NRF Vice President and International Trade Counsel Erik Autor said. “Summer merchandise will be coming through the ports soon, and we’ll be building toward peak season very rapidly.”

All U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker – Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma and Seattle on the West Coast, and New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast – are currently rated “low” for congestion, the same as last month.

Nationwide, the ports surveyed handled 1.26 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) of container traffic in January, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. The figure was down 0.35 percent from December but up 3.4 percent from January 2006.

Volume is following its usual pattern of declining over the winter months, although numbers continue to show growth above one year ago. February (historically the slowest month of the year) is forecast at 1.17 million TEU (up 10.2 percent from February 2006). Volume will begin to move upward again in March, forecast at 1.29 million TEU (up 3.5 percent from March 2006). April is forecast at 1.37 million TEU (up 3.5 percent from April 2006), May at 1.39 million TEU (up 5.6 percent from May 2006), June at 1.42 million TEU (up 4.8 percent from June 2006), and July at 1.47 million TEU (up 9.7 percent from July 2006). The July figure would top last year’s peak of 1.45 million TEU set in October. One TEU is a 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.

Port Tracker, which is produced by the economic research, forecasting and analysis firm Global Insight for NRF, looks at inbound container volume, the availability of trucks and railroad cars to move cargo out of the ports, labor conditions and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion. Subscription information is available at http://www.nrf.com/porttracker or by calling (202) 783-7971.

The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services. NRF represents an industry with more than 1.4 million U.S. retail establishments, more than 23 million employees - about one in five American workers - and 2005 sales of $4.4 trillion. As the industry umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations. http://www.nrf.com/.

Global Insight Inc. is a privately held company that brought together the two most respected economic information companies in the world, DRI and WEFA. Global Insight provides the most comprehensive economic and financial information available on countries, regions and industries, using a unique combination of expertise, models, data and software within a common analytical framework to support planning and decision-making. Through the world's first same-day analysis and risk assessment service, Global Insight provides immediate insightful analysis of market conditions and key events around the world, covering economic, political and operational factors. The company has over 3,800 clients in industry, finance and government with revenues in excess of $95 million, over 600 employees and 23 offices in 13 countries covering North and South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia. http://www.globalinsight.com/

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