Retail Container Traffic Growing Despite Winter Slowdown

For Immediate Release
NRF Contact:J. Craig Shearman (202) 626-8134 shearmanc@nrf.com
Global Insight Contact: Paul Bingham (202) 481-9216 paul.bingham@globalinsight.com

Retail Container Traffic Growing Despite Winter Slowdown

WASHINGTON, D.C., February 7, 2007 — Traffic at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to be at its slowest point of the year during February but will still show growth over 2006, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Global Insight.

“The slow season will be at its slowest in February,” Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. “Container volumes are expected to be down below already-slow January traffic levels but U.S. ports are operating congestion-free, while truck and rail performance is more than adequate for the slow-season volume. Even though it’s the slow season, we’re still seeing increases compared with a year ago. Traffic isn’t likely to grow as quickly as it did last year, but each month is still expected to set new records for that month.”

“It’s the quiet time of year for retailers and shippers but the data from Port Tracker gives us the tools we need to plan for the busy season that’s going to be on top of us before we know it,” NRF Vice President and International Trade Counsel Erik Autor said. “We’re hoping for another smooth year, but keeping tabs on port traffic is one of the keys to keeping a smooth year from turning into a problem year.”

All U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker – Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma and Seattle on the West Coast, and New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast – are currently rated “low” for congestion, the same as last month.

Nationwide, the ports surveyed handled 1.26 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) of container traffic in December, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. The figure was down 6.7 percent from November but up 5 percent from December 2005.

Volume is expected to follow its usual pattern of declining over the winter months, although numbers will continue to show growth above one year ago. January is forecast at 1.24 million TEU (up 2.3 percent from January 2006), and February (historically the slowest month of the year) at 1.17 million TEU (up 9.8 percent from February 2006). Volume will begin to move upward again in March, forecast at 1.28 million TEU (up 3.1 percent from March 2006). April is forecast at 1.37 million TEU (up 3.4 percent from April 2006), May at 1.39 million TEU (up 6.1 percent from May 2006), and June at 1.43 million TEU (up 5.7 percent from June 2006). One TEU is a 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.

Port Tracker, which is produced by the economic research, forecasting and analysis firm Global Insight for NRF, looks at inbound container volume, the availability of trucks and railroad cars to move cargo out of the ports, labor conditions and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion. Subscription information is available at www.nrf.com/porttracker or by calling (202) 783-7971.

Global Insight Inc. is a privately held company that brought together the two most respected economic information companies in the world, DRI and WEFA. Global Insight provides the most comprehensive economic and financial information available on countries, regions and industries, using a unique combination of expertise, models, data and software within a common analytical framework to support planning and decision-making. Through the world's first same-day analysis and risk assessment service, Global Insight provides immediate insightful analysis of market conditions and key events around the world, covering economic, political and operational factors. The company has over 3,800 clients in industry, finance and government with revenues in excess of $80 million, over 600 employees and 23 offices in 13 countries covering North and South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia. www.globalinsight.com 

The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services. NRF represents an industry with more than 1.4 million U.S. retail establishments, more than 23 million employees - about one in five American workers - and 2006 sales of $4.7 trillion. As the industry umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations. www.nrf.com.

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