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January 3, 2007

Retail Container Traffic to Grow More Slowly in 2007

For Immediate Release
NRF Contact: J. Craig Shearman (202) 626-8134
shearmanc@nrf.com
Global Insight Contact: Paul Bingham (202) 481-9216 paul.bingham@globalinsight.com

Retail Container Traffic to Grow More Slowly in 2007

WASHINGTON, D.C., January 3, 2007 — Traffic at the nation’s major retail container ports should continue to grow in 2007 as retailers import more merchandise from abroad, but won’t grow as fast as it did during 2006, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Global Insight.

“Overall trade growth is expected to be positive but slower compared with the monthly rates we saw in the first half of 2006,” Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. “Nonetheless, each month is still expected to see a new record volume for that month.”

Container traffic is expected to grow at rates ranging from 4.6 to 7.3 percent once the winter slow season ends this spring (March through May 2007 measured against the same months in 2006). That compares with increases ranging from 7 percent to 17.9 percent during the same months last year.

“Port Tracker is giving us the ability to track and predict volume and growth at the ports with a level of precision we never had in the past,” NRF Vice President and International Trade Counsel Erik Autor said. “This data is vitally important for retailers trying to keep their supply chains running smoothly.”

All ports covered by Port Tracker – Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma and Seattle on the West Coast, and New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast – are currently rated “low” for congestion, the same as last month.

Nationwide, the ports surveyed handled 1.36 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) of container traffic in November, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. The figure was down 6.6 percent from October but up 7.1 percent from November 2005.

Volume is expected to follow its usual pattern of declining over the winter months, although numbers will continue to show growth above one year ago. December is forecast at 1.32 million TEU (up 10.1 percent from December 2005), January at 1.27 million (up 4.2 percent from January 2006), and February at 1.2 million TEU (up 13.4 percent from February 2006). Volume will begin to move upward again in March, forecast at 1.3 million TEU (up 4.8 percent from March 2006). April is forecast at 1.38 million TEU (up 4.6 percent from April 2006), and May at 1.41 million TEU (up 7.3 percent from May 2006). One TEU is a 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.

Port Tracker, which is produced by the economic research, forecasting and analysis firm Global Insight for NRF, looks at inbound container volume, the availability of trucks and railroad cars to move cargo out of the ports, labor conditions and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion. Subscription information is available at www.nrf.com/porttracker or by calling (202) 783-7971.

Global Insight Inc. is a privately held company that brought together the two most respected economic information companies in the world, DRI and WEFA. Global Insight provides the most comprehensive economic and financial information available on countries, regions and industries, using a unique combination of expertise, models, data and software within a common analytical framework to support planning and decision-making. Through the world's first same-day analysis and risk assessment service, Global Insight provides immediate insightful analysis of market conditions and key events around the world, covering economic, political and operational factors. The company has over 3,800 clients in industry, finance and government with revenues in excess of $80 million, over 600 employees and 23 offices in 13 countries covering North and South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia. www.globalinsight.com

The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services. NRF represents an industry with more than 1.4 million U.S. retail establishments, more than 23 million employees - about one in five American workers - and 2005 sales of $4.4 trillion. As the industry umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations. www.nrf.com.

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