Sales & Forecasts News

Retail sales beat estimates in February as consumers quickly adapted and adjusted their spending in response to an increase in payroll taxes and higher gasoline prices. According to the National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, February retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) increased 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted from January and increased 0.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

Retail sales ticked up in the month of January as consumers adjusted their spending in response to the increase in payroll taxes and rise in gasoline and energy prices. According to the National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, January retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) increased 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted from December and increased 5.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

The National Retail Federation released its 2013 economic forecast today, projecting retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) will increase 3.4 percent*, slightly less than the preliminary 4.2 percent growth seen in 2012. The subdued forecast comes on the heels of a holiday season that went head-to-head with Washington’s political wrangling over fiscal concerns, shifting consumers’ spending plans downward. In the end, holiday sales in 2012 grew 3.0 percent.

Solid consumer spending in the month of December helped retailers finish the year with a healthy holiday shopping season, however economic uncertainties sent a cautious consumer to the stores. According to the National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, December retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) increased 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted from November and increased 2.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

Eager holiday shoppers helped drive retail sales upwards in November, helping boost sales in the first half of the pivotal holiday season. According to the National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, November retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) increased 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted from October and increased 4.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year. With this news, NRF is still expecting holiday sales to grow 4.1 percent over last holiday season.

For the first time in three months, retail sales ticked down slightly as consumers cooled discretionary spending in the face of inclement weather and uncertainty in Washington. According to the National Retail Federation, October retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) decreased 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted from September yet increased 3.9 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

Propelled by solid sales in clothing and electronics stores, growth in retail sales in September offered a promising outlook for the critical holiday months ahead. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), September retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) increased 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted from August, and 2.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

Tempered by political and fiscal uncertainties but supported by signs of improvement in consumer confidence, holiday sales this year will increase 4.1 percent to $586.1 billion. NRF’s 2012 holiday forecast is higher than the 10-year average holiday sales increase of 3.5 percent. Actual holiday sales in 2011 grew 5.6 percent.

Coming off a solid back-to-school shopping season, retailers posted positive sales figures in the month of August. According to the National Retail Federation’s calculations, August retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) increased 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted from July and 3.8 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

Beating economists’ estimates and forecasts, retail sales edged higher in the month of July – breaking three consecutive months of declining growth – demonstrating that consumers are gaining some semblance of confidence this summer.

Retail sales continued to stall in the month of June as consumers held off on discretionary and non-discretionary spending – marking three consecutive months of retail sales decreases – implying that that persistently-high domestic unemployment, stagnant job growth, and international economic unease have taken a toll on American consumers this spring.

After a surprisingly strong first quarter, consumers in May took a more practical approach to their spending. According to the National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, May retail sales (excluding automobile, gas stations and restaurants) decreased 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted from April but increased 4.8 percent unadjusted year-over-year, marking 23 consecutive months of retail sales growth.

Thanks to an earlier Easter holiday and unseasonably warm weather through much of the country, retailers in March witnessed solid sales growth.

With a spring in their step, retailers marked 20 consecutive months of sustained year-over-year retail sales growth in February as unseasonably warm temperatures and comparisons with weak sales in 2011 resulted in stronger-than-expected increases.

After a season full of peaks and valleys, retailers’ 2011 holiday sales beat expectations, rising 4.1 percent to $471.5 billion – slightly surpassing NRF’s holiday sales forecast of 3.8 percent growth.*

Strong promotions on holiday gifts helped a variety of retail categories draw in savvy shoppers as the 2011 holiday shopping season started strong.